NHTSA sets 2031 fuel-economy target at 34.9 mpg, not 50.4

The Transportation Department’s final CAFE rule lowers the prior 50.4 mpg 2031 target and is projected to cut average new-vehicle cost by about $1,300, the agency said.

Auto plant worker in a blue jumpsuit inspecting the front of a silver car on an assembly line.

Photo: General Motors, CC BY 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), via Wikimedia Commons (source)

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration finalized a reset of Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards on Monday that projects a combined fleet average near 34.9 mpg for model year 2031, versus a prior 50.4 mpg target, ABC News and Roll Call reported.

The Transportation Department’s “Freedom Means Affordable Cars” final rule covers cars and light trucks across model years 2022–2031, Roll Call reported. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy said the standards would make vehicles more affordable and support American autoworkers. NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison said the rule balances affordability and energy conservation and “allow[s] automakers more freedom to design and produce vehicles consumers actually want,” according to statements quoted by ABC News.

Numbers in the rule

The Department of Transportation said the updates will trim average new-vehicle cost by as much as $1,300 and save buyers an estimated $138 billion across five years, both outlets reported. Roll Call said NHTSA estimated the 2024 fleet average at about 30.1 mpg, so 34.9 mpg by 2031 would still be an increase from recent levels while slowing the climb set under the prior standards.

Roll Call reported that model years 2022–2026 are already out and some 2027 vehicles are built, so the practical effect mainly hits new cars from model year 2028 onward. ABC News said the agency is also changing light-truck versus passenger-car classification starting in 2030, arguing today's rules pushed design changes just to change a vehicle's class.

President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the standards would “take the waste out of building cars in America” and lead to lower prices, both outlets reported.

Industry and critics

John Bozzella, who heads the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, told ABC News the group was still reviewing the final rule but that NHTSA "made the right call to better align fuel economy standards with the law and current market conditions," and that prior standards "effectively required a switchover to electric vehicles that was out of step with market realities and customer demand."

Environmental groups criticized the change. Former EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy, who chairs the advocacy group America Is All, said mileage rules have saved money and cut pollution, and that the administration had chosen not to keep the United States "at the forefront of innovation," ABC News reported. The Sierra Club’s Katherine García said less efficient cars mean more fuel burned and dirtier air, and that the group would challenge the rollback. The Environmental Defense Fund told Roll Call drivers would pay about $1,600 more for fuel on average, citing NHTSA’s own regulatory impact analysis.

ABC News noted that NHTSA’s 2024 rule was performance-based and did not require manufacturers to build electric vehicles, though the Trump administration has argued prior CAFE standards functioned as an EV mandate.

What's next

Legal challenges from environmental groups are expected. Automakers said they want durable, achievable standards that preserve consumer choice. Roll Call reported Republicans earlier removed civil penalties for missing CAFE targets in a July 2025 budget package, changing the enforcement backdrop for the new standards.

Sources

Motion Media News corrects errors promptly. To report one, email hello@motionnews.studio.

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