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10-year Treasury yield hits 5.23%, highest since 2007, as rate-hike bets build

The benchmark yield rose from just under 4.8% earlier in September as oil neared $100, a manufacturing gauge beat forecasts and consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%.

Motion Media News Staff

Sep 25, 2026

2 minutes

The columned facade of the U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

Photo: Carol M. Highsmith / Library of Congress (Public domain), via Wikimedia Commons (source)

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 5.23% on Friday, Sept. 25, its highest level since 2007, CNBC reported. Earlier in September the yield was trading just under 4.8%.

The climb picked up midweek. On Wednesday the 10-year yield reached 5.12%, while the 30-year yield touched 5.37% and the five-year yield also hit its highest level since 2007, according to Yahoo Finance. Stocks fell that day.

Yahoo Finance tied the move to rising oil prices and stronger-than-expected business data. Brent crude for November delivery traded around $100 a barrel, and S&P Global's September manufacturing PMI came in at 57, against economists' forecasts of 53.6. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said Wednesday that more rate increases are needed to bring down inflation, the outlet reported.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point earlier this month. Fed funds futures showed a 64% chance of another hike in October, CNBC reported, citing the CME FedWatch tool.

Inflation expectations and bond supply

The University of Michigan's September survey showed consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.6% from 4% in August, the highest since June, according to CNBC. The overall sentiment index fell to 48.1, a four-month low, The Hill reported. Survey director Joanne Hsu said consumers "broadly expect gasoline prices to continue rising in both the short and long run." The Hill cited AAA data putting the national average price of gasoline at $4.49 a gallon on Friday.

Some strategists point to bond supply as well. "I think this year it has more to do with the bond issuance than the inflation story," Thierry Wizman, a currency and rates strategist at Macquarie, told CNBC. He cited federal borrowing to cover the deficit along with heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure.

By Vanguard's estimate, cited by CNBC, five large tech companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle) sold roughly $132 billion in bonds in the first seven months of the year, up from about $35 billion a year on average in 2020 through 2024. Vanguard put total AI-linked borrowing for 2026 at between $300 billion and $570 billion.

What's next

Futures markets are pricing the possibility of a hike at the Fed's October meeting. Wizman said hyperscaler spending plans are likely to keep issuance elevated into next year. "So these yields could go higher," he said.